The state of division from which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is suffering is not limited to the government but extends to divisions within his Likud party. This happened even after Netanyahu agreed to pass the Religious Services Law proposed by the Shas party after it threatened to withdraw from the government and while it responded to the demands of party leader Aryeh Adraee, head of the Israeli Defense Forces, to dismiss members from the Constitution Committee.

The dispute extended to the party of National Security Minister Itamar, Ben Gvir – the Otzma Yehudi party - whose members rejected the Religious Services Law. This ultimately prompted Netanyahu to cancel his approval of the law and remove it from the government's agenda.

This confused position by Netanyahu prompted the Shas party to invite its members to an urgent meeting to study the opportunity to withdraw from the government and vote to withdraw confidence from it through the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset.

According to the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies (ECSS), several factors prompted the Shas party to reject the law. Among these factors was the emergence of a political dispute within the Shas party regarding the position on the conscription law, especially the hardline wing that is considered the most extreme, within the party, which strongly opposes the proposal to conscript the Haredim into the Israeli army, in contrast to the position of the party leadership.

This dispute prompted the party leader to appease the wings that rejected the Religious Services Law in addition to bargaining with Netanyahu to pass this law in exchange for its reluctant approval. The party leader is also aware of Likud's desire to introduce fundamental amendments to the Religious Services Law such as abolishing the complete exemption that the Haredim enjoyed from carrying weapons and fighting within the ranks of the Israeli army.

Possible scenarios

According to the ECSS, several possible scenarios remain for dealing with these disputes. Among these is the Shas Party's compliance and waiver of passing the law, after Ben Gvir's party refused to vote in favour of it. Netanyahu is expected to provide material and social privileges to the Shas party, with the possibility of forming a supreme coordination body, part of the Rabbinate, the Ministry of Religious Services, and the Main Rabbinical Committee affiliated with the Haredi parties to control Jewish civil conditions in the occupied territories as well as Israeli cities.

Perhaps the latest proposal may mean the continuation of the dispute within the Shas party, but it is likely to announce its rejection of any amendment during the second reading of the conscription law. However, it is unlikely that the party will withdraw from the government against the backdrop of the removal of the Religious Services Law from the Israeli government's agenda.

Another scenario is that the Shas party hardens its position. This is likely to be part of its bargaining with the Netanyahu government, where it passed the religious services law in exchange for approval of the conscription law. However, Netanyahu's intransigence regarding the first law may lead to the Shas party rejecting the second law. Nonetheless, the party's withdrawal from the government remains unlikely, so as not to stigmatize the party for causing the collapse of a right-wing government.

One of the most important provisions of the disputed Religious Services Law is that it refuses to appoint rabbis by the Prime Minister or to report to him administratively. Rather, the law calls for rabbis to be nominated through election, not appointment, and for them to be administratively subordinate to the Jewish Israeli Chief Rabbinate. The law also regulates matters of marriage, permissibility, burial, and all personal status.

Regarding the reasons for the dispute over the law, Likud members believe that there is a conflict in powers and jurisdictions with local councils. There is also concern about the possibility of their popularity declining in favour of the religious right wing in some municipalities.

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