What has been happening in the Middle East in recent days is like "testing the waters." It is akin to football, where, in the initial stages of a match, one team examines the other before deciding how to proceed. Ahmad Abdel-Rahman writes about this.

Testing the waters has come from almost every possible direction. From Syria and Lebanon to Israel. In Syria, where rebel leader Ahmed Sharaa (Abu Mohammed al-Julani) made it clear that his organisation (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or HTS) has no intention of entering into a conflict with Israel. Sharaa added that there is no reason for Israel to act militarily after Iran has withdrawn. In parallel with Sharaa's statements, Syria's representative to the United Nations called for the Israeli army to withdraw from positions it has seized behind the separation of forces line in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights.

Sharaa's statements can be read as an extended hand of peace (albeit within the framework of an undeclared agreement not to fight): "If you leave Syria quietly, we will leave you quietly." It is as if Sharaa is issuing a veiled warning in the form of: "If you do not leave Syria quietly, we will not leave you quietly." This is an attempt to buy him and his organisation time so that they can organise the area they have occupied without being hindered by the powerful and dominant party in the region – Israel.

Lebanon also attempted to test the waters. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem admitted in his speech a few days ago that his organisation had lost its supply route from Iran, but he made it clear that he was flexible in finding other solutions. Qassem said that his organisation was refraining from responding to "hundreds of violations" of the ceasefire agreement by Israel, explaining that this was done "to help implement the agreement."

Qassem, a weak and uncharismatic leader, spoke to several parties simultaneously: the Syrian rebels and Israel. He promised his organisation would be a "good boy" and fulfill its commitments. But to his loyalists in the Shiite sect in Lebanon, who were wondering about their future, he asked them to take a deep breath because the resistance would continue.

Recent attempts to test the waters came from Gaza, too, with the publication of the Hamas tapes aimed at challenging Israel on the issue of the kidnapped soldiers. The Hamas organisation shows greater flexibility than before,  interpreted as a readiness to reach a deal. The Israeli side is cautiously optimistic about the possibility of a move to return some of the kidnapped soldiers within the framework of a "humanitarian deal." This would include women, the elderly, and the sick.

The statements were aimed at maybe creating conditions for dialogue

Why is Israel moving forward with a prisoner exchange deal in three stages? Why is it not working to return all the kidnapped soldiers, living and dead, in one comprehensive deal? Netanyahu initiated the division into stages, supposedly because he would not be committed to a complete cessation of the war. However, he is now required to clarify whether some of the kidnapped will remain in Gaza.

Moreover, there are also reports published in Washington that the team preparing the Trump administration is examining the possibility of an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. This issue was on the agenda at the end of Trump's previous term. It will now be raised against the backdrop of the belief that Iran is making systematic progress toward building a nuclear bomb, and mainly the fear that the disintegration of the axis of evil led by it will lead to a decision on its part to launch a nuclear attack.

It seems that the statements here are also intended to test the ground and perhaps create conditions for dialogue. The West prefers to reach a new and tough nuclear agreement with Iran that will keep it away from the bomb for decades and withdraw from it advanced capabilities in the field of missiles and terrorism. The implicit threat from Trump's circles – along with various statements regarding accelerating Israel's preparations for an attack on Iran – should be seen as a continuation of the attempts to test the waters in the direction of their continuation in the near future.

Photo: What is happening in the Middle East is like "football". ( by Adobe).