The recent developments in Syria were linked to Iran and the fall of Bashar al-Assad was considered an Iranian failure, and these questions began to be raised: Has the Iranian project ended with the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, Iran’s ally? Has Syria left the so-called Axis of Resistance completely? What is the future of Iranian investments in Syria over the past 12years since its direct intervention in the Syrian civil war? What is the impact of the fall of the Assad regime on Iran? Can Tehran negotiate with the new Syrian regime?

Operation Al-Aqsa Flood will not be a turning point in the future of Gaza, but rather an important turning point that will be recorded in the history of the Middle East, especially with regard to the role of Iran and with it the so-called Axis of Resistance, which has received successive blows over the past months.These blows began with the elimination of the military capabilities of the Hamas movement, then Hezbollah, and finally the overthrow of the Assad regime.

Despite the speech of the Iranian Supreme Leader a few days ago, in which he indicated that Iran's greatest loss was in Hezbollah and not Syria, the Assad regime actually occupied a major position in Iran's regional strategy. This explains why Iran invested militarily, financially and economically in Syria,and worked to control Syrian society and incite sectarian strife within it. The size of what Iran, in economic crisis, invested in Syria is estimated at between USD 30 and USD 50 billion.

Syria's importance stems from the fact that it was the logistical corridor for Iranian supply lines to "Hezbollah", in addition to being the only Arab ally since the Iran-Iraq war, and it was Tehran's outlet on the Mediterranean.Therefore, Iran's ability to rebuild "Hezbollah" militarily, which depended on the flow of weapons through Syria, will be weakened.

Iran also believes that it has lost the main ally in what it calls the "Shiite Crescent" that linked Iran and Iraq across the borders of Lebanon and Syria.

Perhaps Iran now realises that it is a candidate for Israeli targeting through targeting its nuclear program or igniting internal popular tensions, especially against the backdrop of wasted investments on the Assad regime. Then,demonstrations can come out and demand improving economic conditions instead of directing resources towards conflicting countries. Therefore, the Iranian media is trying to promote the idea that supporting the Assad regime is a kind of return of favour, because the Syrian regime supported Iran during its war with Iraq in the eighties.

The fall of Assad gave Turkey, Iran's regional rival, the upper hand in shaping Syria's future in exchange for Tehran's diminishing influence.

How will Iran move in the coming period?

Perhaps Tehran will try to open relations with the new Syrian government. Iranian officials have begun to make contacts with the new players in Syria and will try to negotiate so as not to lose the investments and economic projects there that may be controlled. Therefore, media reports confirmed that Tehran exchanged diplomatic messages with Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham before the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government, and it believes that these developments require it to talk to the other party in Syria.

Hence,the Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement stating that "in view of the recent developments in Syria, and while recalling Iran's principled position of respecting Syria's unity, national sovereignty and territorial integrity, it affirms that determining the fate and decision of Syria's future is up to the people of this country alone, without destructive interventions or foreign imposition."

The statement was traditional and does not clarify the reality of the relations between Syria and Iran for more than four decades, but Tehran is trying to open a dialogue with the new players. On the other hand, Iran will work to recruit young Sunni Syrians and form militias that it will fill with hostility against Israeli movements in Syria to create militias that it can rely on.

This is in addition to Iran's attempt to open a dialogue with the Kurds and benefit from the tense relations between them and Turkey, and therefore it will try not only to create allies with whom its interests are linked inside Syria, but also to weaken Turkey's influence there.

Iran will certainly review its regional strategy and deterrence strategy in light of the new data, which will clarify whether its dependence on Syria will remain within its axis, or whether Syria has left the Iranian axis forever?

Photo: The Assad regime has occupied a major position in Iran's regional strategy. ( by Adobe).