Ahmad Abdel-Rahman
October 31, 2024

Is a wider regional war in the Middle East likely?

More than a year after the war in Gaza, the conflict threatens to engulf the whole Middle East and bypass all efforts to prevent a regional war. Warnings are rising from influential countries in the Middle East and the world to prevent a slide into a large-scale war that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to want.

This escalation looks likely to lead to a clash between those who back Netanyahu rushing into his military adventure with American support- even while there is hesitation that calls for an end to the war - and those who do not want any war.

The war in Gaza is transforming the Middle East. It is expanding towards southern Lebanon and the Iranian front. If the war in Gaza is the origin of Netanyahu's war, there are possibilities that it would stop; however, the war continues in northern Israel with Hezbollah. Netanyahu's goal is a war with Iran. The likelihood of this happening is increasing, especially with continued American support for Netanyahu and the deployment of the new missile system supplied by the US to confront the possibility of drone attacks from Iran. The system is the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence System, known as THAAD.

The assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in early October, and before it, other assassinations, represented a shift in the balance of power in the Middle East.

Despite Iran's insistence that it would not enter a large-scale war and it would not have a direct conflict with Israel, Israel has moved away from a proxy war with Iran through groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah to a direct confrontation with it.

Iran responded to the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus by launching drones and missiles last April. Iran repeated its drone and missile attacks in response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh and senior Hezbollah leaders, Fouad Shukr, Hezbollah's Chief of Staff, Ali Nazih, and more than 400 senior leaders, the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, some of his successors and the continued incursion into villages in southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah responded to the killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders by launching missiles and drones targeting military areas in Haifa and the occupied territories. Various reports then announced that about 30 Iranian missiles hit the Israeli Nevatim Air Base, while a missile exploded 700 metres from the headquarters of Mossad, the Israeli spy agency. Reports are saying that Benjamin Netanyahu's government is planning to launch a retaliatory attack in response to the Iranian missile barrage in early October,

When Israel does so is unknown, but it is all about timing, Israeli sources say. The Financial Times said that Israel will decide after the installation of THAAD with which the US has provided Israel, designed to shoot down ballistic missiles. This will be installed alongside the Israeli Arrow system, which is also supplied by the US and is designed to enhance Israeli air defences. In response, Iran has sent a warning message to the American forces sent to defend Israel against expected Iranian attacks that their lives are at risk. The spokesperson for the Pentagon in the US has confirmed that it would send a crew of its forces to operate the THAAD battery to enhance Israel's air defences.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued the warning and wrote on his X account: "Joe Biden is putting the lives of his troops at risk by deploying them to operate US missile systems in Israel," adding: "The United States was delivering a record amount of weapons to Israel. Now, it is also putting the lives of its troops at risk by deploying them to operate US missile systems in Israel. While we have made tremendous efforts recently to contain a comprehensive war in our region, I say clearly that we have no red lines in defending our people and interests".

The Iranian warnings come in conjunction with warnings issued by major countries in the region, led by Egypt and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, warning of the seriousness of the regional situation and the need to stop the escalation. A joint statement by countries in the Middle East was issued in Cairo after the meeting of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

The statement called for the initiation of calming steps, including a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. It addressed the deteriorating humanitarian conditions, the importance of stopping the widening circle of conflict, and the need to respect Lebanon's sovereignty, security, stability, and territorial integrity.

Photo: Israel and Iran are at loggerheads (by Adobe).