Today marks one year since October 7, which radically changed the region's geopolitical map and strongly affected global strategic balances. The people of Gaza remain in devastation, enduring what has been described as genocide.
The Israeli genocidal war on Gaza left over 41,586 dead and 96,210 wounded, most of them children and women, with more than 10,000 missing, amid massive destruction and deadly famine, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza. In addition, nearly everything essential for life in the Strip has been destroyed.
The international community has failed to stop the genocide, and ceasefire negotiations between the Palestinians and Israel have yet to reach a conclusion. So, what comes next?
Israel will continue to defy the international community by persisting in the war, ignoring the UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate halt, as well as the International Court of Justice's orders to take measures to prevent acts of genocide and improve the catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza.
Furthermore, Israel deliberately aims for the failure of negotiations to reach a deal with Hamas. The imposition of new conditions—most notably the creation of the Salah al-Din (Philadelphia) Corridor complex and the refusal to withdraw from it—has further complicated the situation.
At the same time, Israel is working toward establishing civil administration in Gaza with the help of other nations, which was approved by the appointment of Elad Goren as the Israeli military governor in Gaza. This appointment seems to suggest that the occupation may continue for years to build an alternative local authority to Hamas.
Israel will seek to reach a deal to release the hostages while simultaneously insisting on continuing the genocide in Gaza and refusing to withdraw from the Gaza Strip completely.
Another possible option is displacing the residents of the Strip outside Palestine, whether to Egypt or to any other countries, as stated by the Israeli Ministers of Finance and National Security on December 4, 2023.
As for reoccupying Gaza, it is clear that Israel, the occupying state, has neither the desire nor the ability to do so in its clear and blatant form, but it is seeking, as usual, a cheap occupation by establishing a civil administration subject to the occupation, funded by the international community and some Arab countries while retaining security control and the right to enter whenever it wants and act as it pleases, as appeared in the statements of Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant.
On the other hand, as a result of this Israeli war, the war is spreading to other countries, potentially leading to a regional war supported by the United States. Following the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah has initiated operations in Lebanon, with its cabinet approving the next phase of the operation.
The way Netanyahu and his government are conducting the war on the Gaza Strip suggests that the war is ongoing and may be prolonged with no immediate end in sight. However, Netanyahu is working towards achieving his goals and imposes his vision for the next day in controlling Gaza through the demilitarisation of Gaza and establishing a new civil administration to eliminate Hamas.