The latest unrest in the chaotic Middle East comes less than two months before US President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House. Trump's team may see an unexpected opportunity as he seeks to redraw the region's landscape.

Developments in Syria are turning the tables for the US, which tried years ago to change the dynamics of a devastating conflict that yielded no significant positive results.

The surprise attack by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and allied opposition factions on the city of Aleppo and Damascas came after Israel worked to weaken Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah, both of which support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Russia, another supporter of Assad, is largely preoccupied with its war in Ukraine.

The position the US has taken on Syria

In a region that has seen major changes since the outbreak of the Gaza war, the US position, which the administration of President Joe Biden again clarified, has not changed its position much over the course of a decade. Despite Assad's loss of credibility due to his regime's brutality, the US is not prioritising his removal from power or supporting opposition factions.

"The Biden administration is no longer just paying attention to Syria, but has completely ignored it," said Andrew Tabler, a senior adviser on Syria in the former Trump administration and now a fellow at the Washington Institute. "You can ignore things all you want, but that doesn't mean they won't get worse." Tabler suggested that setbacks on the ground could eventually force Assad to reach a negotiated solution, something he has often resisted.

"I think a future administration that pays more attention to Syria and conflicts like it will be better able to manage the issue," Tabler said. "We don't know yet what that will look like."

Former President Barack Obama, who resisted pressure to strike the Assad regime and refused to support opposition factions, opted for another solution: allying with Kurdish fighters to achieve the limited US goal of defeating ISIS. The US still has 900 troops in Syria. In his first term, Trump ordered the withdrawal of American troops in response to calls from Turkey, which supports Islamist factions and considers Kurdish forces in Syria to be linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). However, Trump later backed down after international appeals led by France, leaving a limited force. Trump raised even bigger questions when his nominee for intelligence chief, Tulsi Gabbard, sparked controversy with past statements sympathetic to Assad.

The primary goal of American policymakers was "to support Israel and hurt Russia and Iran," said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at the University of Oklahoma. "So the rebel offensive is very good for America from that perspective because it changes the security map of the Middle East in a significant way," Landis added.

A rebel victory would breach the so-called "Shiite Crescent," through which Iran's influence has extended westward to Lebanon. "That would be very much in Israel's interest and would deal a major blow to Iran," Landis said. However, Sunni Islamist factions will also stand against the US, which will once again find itself facing the question of whether it should protect its Kurdish allies from Turkey.

"It poses a dilemma for the United States and Israel about whether they really prefer to have an Islamist government in Syria or whether they prefer to keep it divided and weak," Landis said.

Despite criticism for its inaction, the Biden administration has allocated more than USD1 billion in humanitarian aid to displaced Syrians over the past year.

Under a sanctions law that expires this month, the US opposes any reconstruction that involves Assad. Yet it does not include holding him accountable for the war that has killed more than half a million people and displaced millions since 2011. But a growing number of Arab countries, most notably Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates, have reconciled with Assad, believing the war is over or at least frozen.

Several Western countries, most notably Italy, have recently taken a different stance from the US position, returning their ambassadors to Syria, seeking stability in the hope of preventing a new migration crisis similar to the one that shook Europe a decade ago.

According to a UN report, the renewed fighting has displaced some 50,000 people, and it will increase humanitarian needs as winter approaches, according to Mona Yacoubian, vice president of the Middle East and North Africa Center at the US Institute of Peace.

 "So it raises big questions," Yacoubian said. "Where do people go when they're displaced? Given these shifts in the balance of power, is the door open to reshaping the region and restructuring its security? I think that's a big, open question."

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Photo: The primary goal of American policymakers was "to support Israel and hurt Russia and Iran," said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at the University of Oklahoma.(by Adobe)

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