While the Democrats in the US and their candidate Kamala Harris, are seeking to achieve a degree of balance concerning the Israel-Gaza war, this has paralyzed the US Democratic administration and weakened its ability to play the role of mediator.

The Democrats are feeling the weight of voters of Arab origin because this time the elections will be decided by a limited number of states, including Michigan, which has an influential percentage of Arab-American votes. If they vote for Kamala Harris, she will win the state, and if they abstain from voting, she will certainly lose it.

This is probably the first time that the Arab vote is a decisive factor in the elections. Michigan is in a "swing state," meaning that most voters are still undecided. However Jewish votes are concentrated in "decided states", such as New York for the Democrats, and Florida for the Republicans.

For this reason, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris seeks to maintain the support of liberal Jews in the party. They are not only an important source of donations and advertising, but the Democratic Party has always enjoyed the majority of Jewish votes. These contradictory considerations have made the Democratic administration content itself with expressing sympathetic statements with the Palestinians but have not adopted any position that would bring it into conflict with Israel.

The Republican Party is fully pro-Israel. The reasons for this are related to the fundamentalist evangelical movement, which represents an important aspect of the party's electoral base. The party also supports Israel for theological reasons related to the return of Christ at the end of time to the land of Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu prefers that the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wins the elections, because not only do both himself and Trump share a right-wing political map and the unconditional support of the evangelical base for Israel, but Netanyahu sees the generational shifts that the Democratic Party is witnessing. The growing influence of youth and the progressive movement in the party, that criticisms of Israel and its right-wing government are growing.

Why a ceasefire will not happen

Netanyahu prefers that a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel is not reached through American/Democratic mediation (the Biden administration). This is because this will serve the electoral interests of Democratic candidate Harris, not only as a diplomatic achievement but because it will reduce tensions between Arabs and Jews within the Democratic Party and encourage them both to vote for Harris.

Netanyahu is betting on Trump's victory to complete his destructive plans. His calculations are based on not reaching a ceasefire in Gaza, which will deprive Harris of electoral votes, and help Trump reach the White House. Trump will also keep this favour for Netanyahu.

The war in the Gaza Strip has widened the gap within the US Congress; the bipartisan polarisation between Republicans and Democrats has returned, and the Democratic Party has been divided into supporters and opponents of Palestine. Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, the approach of US President Joe Biden and the general Democratic trend has focused on full support for Israel.

However, a parallel trend has also emerged from a group of progressive representatives, demanding that the US push hard for a ceasefire and condemn Israel for the crimes it has committed in Gaza

In short, the calculations of the upcoming US elections add complications to the already complex negotiations to reach a ceasefire in Gaza.

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