Will Turkey succeed in stopping Israeli airstrikes in Syria? Turkey does not want to be drawn into a war, but what is the way forward?
Renewed controversy has arisen over Israeli airstrikes on military sites and airports inside Syria, targeting areas in Hama and Homs. Neither Turkey nor Israel want further confrontation, according to their statements. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed his country does not want to see any confrontation with Israel in Syria. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also stated that Israel does not seek any further confrontation.
These statements indicate a serious attempt to create sufficient distance between the two sides. Not only does Turkey have a strong presence in Syria, it has also helped the new administration come to power. While Syria enjoys respect and appreciation from Ankara, Turkey’s capital, the new regime wants to continue to build better relations with Turkey, especially militarily.
Israel has expressed apprehension and reacted immediately, which usually means that the Netanyahu government reacts violently. Turkey has tried to establish a new protocol to regulate their relationship and to prevent a further escalation of fighting in Syria. Turkey believes that the new Syrian administration desperately needs calm to operate effectively. However, Turkey believes Israel has overstepped its bounds in its military operations, particularly those targeting central Syria. Israel justifies this under the pretext of "destroying the weapons of the former regime" even though that regime ended with the fall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Hence, Turkish intervention was necessary considering that the leadership in Syria is mainly concerned with rebuilding the country and is not ready to enter into direct dialogue with Israel, despite Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa's statements that Syria has no military intentions against anyone. Given the internal challenges facing Syria on multiple fronts, Israel insists there are no military capabilities of any kind within Syria’s borders. Israel's understandings with the former Assad regime meant it secured its borders and Assad maintained a cold, almost freezing, adherence to his military contact lines. Although this created reassurance that Israel would not attack, it now claims that this situation is no longer guaranteed by the presence of a new ruling group with an Islamist ethos.
US President Trump is entering into a dialogue with Turkey and Israel. Israel, aware of the warm relationship between Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, wants to capitalise on this relationship, attempting to uncover Turkish intentions regarding Syria from a military perspective. It also seeks assurances from Trump that its border with Syria will remain calm and a new front will not be opened.
Israel acted unilaterally after the fall of Assad by breaching the security buffer zone adjacent to the Golan Heights and taking over Mount Hermon, which overlooks the border area. Israeli leaders ignored numerous UN warnings not to broach the buffer zone. From its perspective, Israel seeks greater security to protect it from any surprise drone attacks or military infiltration after having secured its immediate borders, Israel believes that Turkey's relationship with the new Syrian administration means it should provide such a guarantee. The new rulers of Damascus are aware of Syria's urgent military need for Turkey, and the Turks are well aware of this too. The new Syria began without any military infrastructure. This is in contrast to recent years where there has been a great deal of foreign interference, whether in the war against the Syrian people or Israeli airstrikes.
Since the Syrian scene needs some kind of balance, the Turks are pursuing their policy and will be able to prevent Israel from attempting to invade Syrian territory. Therefore, a Turkish role is required to achieve this balance in Syria. Israel is aware of this and believes in the necessity of removing Iran from the current situation in Syria, or neutralizing it completely.
The recent talks between Tel Aviv and Ankara, which Fidan described as “technical”, took place without American or Russian objection.