In every American presidential election, there are many central issues around which the election campaigns revolve. Typically, they are the economy, health care, immigration, and other internal issues that are vital for the American voter.
But in the presidential race for November 2024, the race seems to be related to what is happening thousands of miles away from the US, in the heart of the Middle East. This is especially the case for President Joe Biden, who is seeking to secure a second term in the White House. This is even more important, given the Republicans' support for Israel. According to Associated Press, citing an expert, Biden's position would have been clearer had it not been for the upcoming elections.
The war between Israel and Gaza, which has gone on for over eight months, is no longer a regional war. Many of the practices carried out by the Israeli forces in this war, including targeting civilians and killing tens of thousands of women and children, not to mention the policy of starvation and obstruction of humanitarian aid, have affected the internal policies of many countries, especially in Europe.
President Biden and his advisors fear that this war will have an impact on the upcoming elections, given Israel's unique position in American politics and the role played by its American Jewish supporters and their allies in enhancing the chances of one candidate over another.
This is clearly demonstrated by President Biden's confusion between criticising Israel, even though its military campaign is escalating, and avoiding the adoption of any firm position against it, especially any that might affect his chances of re-election.This is magnified by the fact that Republicans strongly support Israel. The Associated Press also talked about Biden's position and his red line policy regarding Israel and its military operations. The agency said that the US was content with only acknowledging an increase in Israeli military activity, even though it has attacked the southern city of Rafah, while doing its best to avoid any indication that the occupation forces had crossed the red line set by Biden.
A few days ago, the Israeli strikes that targeted displaced Palestinians in their tents near Rafah sparked international condemnation and Israel confirmed that its forces were operating in the heart of the city. However, Biden administration officials said that Israel avoided launching large-scale attacks on highly crowded neighbourhoods in Rafah, and kept air strikes limited and targeted compared to what was the case in the previous eight months of the war. Critics accused Biden, who announced last month that he would not provide offensive weapons to Israel if it launched a comprehensive attack on Rafah, that he faced his own internal red line and that he had to decide whether he wanted to cross it or not.
The Associated Press quoted Colin Clark, an international security expert and director of research at the Soufan Center - an independent non-profit center offering research, analysis, and strategic dialogue on global security challenges and foreign policy- as saying that Biden administration officials will continue to move their goals as it is related to the Rafah operation. Biden officials were manipulating the meanings of the Rafah operation, he said, adding: "I think that if this were not an election year, we would have seen the American president in a stronger position."
US National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, had been under pressure in this regard in recent days, saying in a press conference that there is no mathematical formula to determine when and how the Rafah attack exceeds the conditions set by the US President. He also said that the US will examine whether the operation is causing too much death and destruction or whether it is more precise and proportionate than earlier in the war.
Israel's attack on Rafah was the impetus behind Biden issuing his strongest warning about Israel last month when he said he would suspend sending offensive weapons to Tel Aviv once this happened. His administration officials also confirmed that a shipment of heavy bombs to Tel Aviv had already been suspended to ensure they would not be dropped on Rafah. But the Republicans' condemnation of Biden's position was swift and fierce, and they responded by inviting Benjamin Netanyahu to address Congress in the House of Representatives and the Senate on July 24. The Israeli Prime Minister announced that he had already accepted the invitation.
Photo: US relations with Israel could determine the next election (by Abobe)