Significant developments have occurred in the Levant since the launch of Trump's election campaign and influenced the American position at the beginning of Trump's second term. The two most important of these are the Iran-Israel war that broke out on October 7, 2023, and the military coup against Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. These two developments, and the wars that resulted from them, mean the new administration at the White House has more complex issues to tackle than Trump's first term in office.
The wars that erupted in the Negev spread to Gaza, then southern Lebanon, to Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Iran, too, has altered the balance of power. Despite the development of regional relations and the presence of regional powers such as Turkey and Iran attempting to change the status quo, Iran's regional orientation in the Middle East and the Arabian Gulf immediately tops the list. Hence, Iran seeks to expand its influence in the Middle East, relying on all means that propel it to become a regional force.
The Israeli confrontations with the Iranian regime's militias are still raging despite the truce, and the American commitment to Israel has continued from Biden to Trump. Washington's conflict with Iran will place the Trump administration in a position of facing difficult choices.
Regional countries and groups were also surprised by the uprising against the Assad regime led by the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham militia, the heir to Jabhat al-Nusra and al-Qaeda. This uprising toppled the regime and took control of the capital and major cities. It reached the borders of Jordan and Iraq and cut off Iran's strategic corridor between Iran and the Mediterranean Sea.
Given these developments, how will the Donald Trump administration deal with the Iranian regime, especially amid expanding conflicts in the region? After returning to the White House, will Trump change his hardline policy toward Iran? What are the possible scenarios and alternatives?
Trump's possible scenarios
President Trump will combine two trends into a single agenda. The first will be a serious attempt at dialogue with Iran and negotiations with its leadership to reach a new nuclear agreement. Of course, Trump will seek a deal that ends Iran's nuclear programme and give it an economic project as a gift to the Iranian government if it agrees.
The American public will also emphasise an Iranian commitment not to target Israel. However, Iran will be at a crossroads. If the Iranians accept such a deal, this could lead to an internal uprising. If it stalls too much, it could lead to an Israeli strike against the Iranian regime.
Some negotiators in the Trump camp believe the White House could enter negotiations with Tehran, winning the diplomatic battle and pressuring Iran until it retreats militarily. Others within the administration do not trust Iran and propose advancing along two parallel lines: negotiations on the one hand and a ground siege on the other. This means preparing for a broad strike, with or without the Israelis. This team will be prepared for military pressure, while negotiators and mediators will attempt to impose an alternative to the 2015 Obama deal.
However, the minefields are numerous, the most important of which are the situation in Syria, the problem with Hezbollah in Lebanon, a possible explosion in Yemen, and, most importantly, the possibility of a widespread revolution within Iran. Any such explosion could undermine the option of US-Iranian negotiations and trigger a major confrontation in the region. The first signs of such a possible confrontation are seen in the recent airstrikes launched by the US targeting the Houthis in Yemen.
There are cards that Tehran may use in dealing with US President Donald Trump. The first is producing a broader agreement with Hamas, which could undermine the Israeli goal of dismantling these militias. The second is to demand that Hezbollah refrain from opening a front in southern Lebanon. The third is to negotiate over Yemen to resolve the Houthi problem. The fourth is to persuade the US administration to adopt a diplomatic solution and prevent a potential Israeli strike on Iran.
One of Iran's options is not to agree to a nuclear agreement and for the US to end the regime permanently (Photo by Adobe)