One of the biggest questions raised by media institutions, academics, and specialised research centres concerned with American elections focuses on the general trends of voters of Arab, Middle Eastern, and Islamic origins.

The American public has had general ideas about the major political trends of Arab and Eastern communities for decades. This assessment can be summarised as follows: most Arabs and Muslims vote for the Democratic Party because they consider themselves "minorities" in the political and constitutional system. The reason for this is that the Democratic Party in general needs their votes, provides them with extensive services, and strengthens their positions in administrations. However, this simplified view of Middle Eastern voters has evolved and changed, becoming more complex than it has been for decades.

The evolution of the electoral map

During the Cold War, these Middle Eastern communities were divided between supporters of the Democrats, the majority of whom were progressive, and supporters of the Republicans, the majority of whom were conservative. During the Lebanese war from 1975 to 1990, the majority of Lebanese Americans gradually moved to the Republicans due to the alliance of former Syrian President Hafez al-Assad with the Soviet Union and the support of the Reagan and Bush I administrations for the resistance against the communists.

With the fall of the Soviet Union, the positions of these communities began to change regarding American foreign policies. At the same time, the younger generations began to become more and more "Americanized" which affected the electoral choices of the Arab Muslim communities in the US.

Recent influences

Several phenomena have escalated and have begun to influence the political orientations of Arab and Middle Eastern voters since the September 11, 2001, attacks and the so-called "Arab Spring" in 2011.

The most important of these phenomena was the rise of  Barack Obama in 2009. The latter helped generate a leftist Islamist wave, the expansion of the influence of the "Muslim Brotherhood" groups coming from the Middle East, the spread of the influence emanating from the Iranian regime through the Eastern communities, and the influence of the communities affiliated with the Eastern Christian sects concerned about the extremism embodied by the Al-Qaeda and ISIS groups.

Poor economic conditions, attempted geographic changes in the Middle East, the rise of the populist Donald Trump, and the impact of the reforms of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman can also be added to these phenomena.

All these have contributed to influencing the Arab Islamic communities and removing them from the old traditions, specifically the duality of association with either the Republicans or the Democrats. The new communities have different interests and changing priorities, and overlapping internal and external options. The reasons for supporting this or that candidate are no longer as simple as they were.

Every community in a country suffers from the mother country's divisions, which is reflected in the American candidates. Some support the regime in power, some support the opposition, and many are only concerned with the economic situation in America.

Balance in Options

In summary, the forces supporting Islamic groups, the axis of the Khomeini regime, and the international left turned to President Obama's movement and after him with the Biden era and now with Kamala Harris. However, there are divisions between the direction of the party's leadership and its radical movement. In this scenario, the forces supporting Israel aligned with those opposing the Khomeinists. As of now, it is  still unclear who received the votes of the majority of these communities.

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