Ahmad Abdel Rahman
February 27, 2025

Will Iran follow Mexico's lead and make concessions to Trump?

In February 2005, US President Donald Trump issued instructions in a memorandum to exert maximum pressure on Iran, "until further notice". The memorandum aims to block all paths to Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon and to confront its influence abroad.

The memorandum includes details on how to deny Iran access to nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles as well as how to neutralise its terrorist networks. Iran must stop developing offensive missiles and other asymmetric and conventional weapons capabilities, the memorandum said. This is in addition to directing the US Treasury Secretary to apply maximum economic pressure on the Iranian government, including imposing sanctions or implementing punitive measures against individuals who violate existing sanctions.

Under the memorandum, the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, is to issue directives to all relevant business sectors, including shipping and insurance companies, and port operators, about the risks faced by anyone who knowingly violates US sanctions against Iran or its terrorist proxies. The memorandum also directs the Attorney General, Pam Bondi, to take all possible legal measures to investigate, disrupt, and prosecute financial and logistical networks or agents within the US that are supported by Iran or its terrorist proxies.

The memorandum also stated that Trump will not allow Iran to produce nuclear weapons, and will not tolerate Iran's continued support for terrorism, especially against US interests. In 2020, President Trump announced that as long as he is President of the US, he would never allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon.

That memorandum clarified the ambiguity surrounding Trump's policy toward Iran. A faction within Iran considered it dangerous to continue sending positive signals to the West while Tehran did not receive any positive response.

The anger inside Iran is that the US has calculated that Iran is weaker than it once thought; indeed, the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had previously warned against any signals that would encourage the US and its western allies. The prevailing view inside Iran is that sending signals and statements by Iran's Vice-President for Strategic Affairs, Javad Zarif, especially during Davos, suggested that Iran was weak, and that the US and the West were undermining and destroying Tehran's national interests.

Iran believes that Trump's signing of the memorandum was intended to obtain concessions from it, much like it did with Mexico. Any concessions would represent a psychological advantage for the American president. In the case of Iran, Trump could begin his actions with maximum pressure and wait for Tehran's response to gain the upper hand over it in any negotiations.

The angry majority inside Iran believe that insisting on negotiations in a situation where the other party adopts a "pressure" approach will not lead to any results; rather it will weaken the position of the Iranian negotiator.

Photo: The US exerted "maximum pressure"  on Mexico. Will it do the same to Iran? (by Adobe).