The Middle East is renowned for rapid political and security events in which local, regional, and international interests intertwine. Therefore, understanding them can be difficult. However, recent events in Syria such as the end of Bashar al-Assad's regime after a long period of resistance in the face of internal and external pressures, may constitute a new turning point that redraws the map of regional influence and raises questions about the possibility of the return of Islamic or extremist movements.
What happened in Syria cannot be viewed in isolation from other pivotal events, such as the war in Lebanon and the ongoing conflict in Gaza. These developments form an intertwined picture that will determine the region's future.
The Syrian war has ended with the disintegration of the Assad regime, which was supported by Russia and Iran, and the loss of most of its territory to the armed opposition. With the fall of regime-held areas and the decline of the control of extremist organisations such as IS or Islamic State, questions have emerged about what will happen in the next phase.
Despite what appears to be relative stability, the deep wounds left by the war, such as widespread destruction, the displacement of millions, and the collapse of the economy, constitute a fertile environment for continued tensions. These conditions open the way for the return of Islamist movements, whether in the form of armed extremism or political movements that exploit the state of popular discontent.
The role of the Islamic State
In the regional context, it is necessary to understand that Syria was not just an internal conflict but also an arena for settling regional and international scores. Here, the role of the regime's allies, Iran and Hezbollah, in supporting Bashar al-Assad and consolidating his authority becomes clear. This support was part of a broader strategy to strengthen Iranian influence in the Arab Levant.
The war in Syria and the resulting sectarian polarisation have deepened divisions in Lebanon, where the country is suffering from a stifling political and economic crisis that creates potential for the return of extremism. Hezbollah, the country's most powerful armed force, is facing increasing internal challenges amid an unprecedented economic crisis that could reshape the region's political and security calculations.
As for Gaza, the conflict between Israel and Palestinian armed factions, especially Hamas, has been a constant factor in shaping regional tensions. Hamas is part of the axis of resistance led by Iran and Syria and has found itself in a difficult position during the Syrian war after siding with the opposition. The end of the Assad regime was not the result of a comprehensive military victory by the opposition forces but rather due to political settlements and the loss of intensive external support for Bashar al-Assad's regime.
This has led to a reordering of its regional relations. Still, with the end of the Assad regime and the return of warm relations with Tehran, greater coordination between the various Islamic factions may occur in the future, which could reshape the map of alliances.
The events in Gaza and the repeated wars with Israel represent an important factor in strengthening the image of armed Islamist movements as "defenders of just causes," thereby increasing their popularity in certain circles. However, this role is not without contradictions, as it also puts them in direct confrontation with regimes that are trying to contain the Islamists or compete with them over the legitimacy of representing the Palestinian cause.
This reality raises questions about the region's ability to deal with conflicts sustainably. The fragility left by the long war and the absence of clear mechanisms for national reconciliation or reconstruction leaves the door open to the return of various forms of extremist movements. Given that Islamic State (IS) was able to rise again in similar circumstances, the risk of a repeat of the scenario exists.
The events in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza are not just separate but are intertwined threads in a complex fabric that determines the future of the Middle East. The return of Islamist or extremist movements is possible as long as the current political, economic, and social conditions persist.
The solution to regional turmoil requires a comprehensive regional and international approach that rebuilds societies and establishes the foundations of justice and peace. But without such an approach, the region will continue to await new changes that may bring further chapters of turmoil.
Photo: "The Syrian war has ended with the disintegration of the Assad regime, which was supported by Russia and Iran, and the loss of most of its territory to the armed opposition." ( by Adobe)