Ahmad Abdel Rahman
March 6, 2025

Will the Gulf States play a mediating role in any US-Iranian negotiations?

There is a suggestion that Saudi Arabia could replicate the step Iran has made with Qatar. It is expected that Tehran may have taken or will take the same step with Saudi's capital, Riyadh, as it seeks to benefit from reconciliation between it and Saudi Arabia to convey messages through the latter to Washington DC.

The Emir of Qatar visited Tehran recently and met with the Iranian Supreme Leader and its president. While official news reported on the ongoing friendly relations between the two countries and regional and international issues of common interest, what was the purpose of Qatar's visit?

It came amid challenges facing the Middle East that require coordination on some issues and mediation on others. However, despite the friendly and strong relations between Tehran and Doha (in part, this is because they have economic interests), the visit's timing may be related to Washington DC and the Donald Trump administration.

During the visit, Khamenei did not miss the opportunity to blame Qatar for the Iranian funds frozen by a US order since the prisoner exchange deal between Tehran and Washington DC in 2023.

Strong relations with Doha

Relations with Doha, Qatar's capital, have been strengthened due to Qatari interests and the ambition of its leadership to play a mediating role in the Middle East and to resist Israel. Qatar has enjoyed closer relations with Iran than other GCC countries. In addition to strengthening economic ties between the two countries, they share the offshore gas field. Qatar's North Field, one of the largest untapped gas reserves in the world and geologically adjacent to Iran's South Pars field, creates enormous economic potential for the two countries.

The two sides have also signed a security agreement covering areas of cooperation to combat terrorism, drugs, human trafficking, money laundering, and other criminal activities. In 2011, the two countries also established the Gas Exporting Countries Forum with Russia. In 2014, they agreed to further expand trade and announced the establishment of three free trade zones in the Iranian port of Bushehr and the Qatari ports of Doha and Ruwais.

For this reason, it becomes clear why Iran sought a suitable opportunity to forge strong relations with some Gulf States. This has also hindered any opportunity to form alliances against it. Iran is now seeking to exploit these relations so that the Gulf States, particularly Qatar, continue to play the role of mediator between Tehran and Washington.

The visit of the Emir of Qatar may raise the possibility of the country mediating direct talks between Iran and Trump, especially since Tehran is waiting for negotiations to start with the US president. This attempt at mediation has come when Trump has just signed the memorandum to implement maximum pressure policies on Iran, as well as imposing sanctions on parties related to the oil sector. Iran fears returning to selling about 300,000 barrels per day as it used to during Trump's first term instead of about 1.7 million barrels during the former US President, Joe Biden's term.

While US intelligence reports have emerged that Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, intends to push Trump to support his attack on Iranian facilities, Tehran has made clear the paths it will take if any attacks take place. This includes responding to Israel with more powerful missiles, withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and changing its nuclear doctrine from peaceful to military.

Photo: The GCC countries are well positioned to take on a mediating role between Iran and the US ( by Adobe).